2026 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot Breakdown
by: Aniruddh Nambudiri
My second WSUM ballot breakdown for the Baseball Hall of Fame!!! I probably ran around the entire station after I saw the ballot as it really is like Christmas day for me. Celebrating players who deserve to be celebrated in a system that is probably the most robust in all of sports. I love hall of fames when they feel prestigious, and I would argue Baseball’s hall of fame still has that prestige in spades. Players can be incredible yet still fall short, and outside of an annoying sector of fans who will only complain, the rest are fine with that fact. Cooperstown has never felt the need to be a revolving door and I would argue that is what helps it keep up its high standards that get higher as time goes on.
This ballot is hard though. The newcomers are not like last year where it felt like so many new guys had interesting cases. Two first ballot hall of famers and many who absolutely have started building their boats to sail the seas of future ballots. This is not a fault of the players though. This is the ballot affected by the pandemic and the very understandable position of great players not wanting to retire in front of absolutely nobody. These were largely players who were phased out towards the end of their careers. This does not mean they are not interesting to discuss because being on the ballot is an honor in and of itself. That is what we will do today. Discuss everyone and give everyone the same credence before filling out a ballot of my own. I will be making both the traditional and sabermetric opinion on their case, along with a fun statistical search I made for each player that shows how good they were. All searches were generated using Stathead.
(I am not an official voter. I am just a dumb college kid who loves baseball but I will act like a distinguished writer for my own fun)
Here we go!
Bobby Abreu
Traditional
It was always funny as a new fan going back and seeing fans hate someone for “chasing statistics” despite them being by far the best player on their team. The best example of that is Bobby Abreu. His reputation meant he only made two all star games despite having one of the best Home Run Derby performances of all time. He was a power-speed guy who played good defense along with his over 2400 career hits. 2000 hits has always been a soft barrier with the hall so Abreu clears that quite clearly. Abreu was also right next to the 300 batting average for his career with some incredible gap power, averaging about 38 per 162 for his career and around 43 in his prime. That number would have led the NL and been third in all of baseball this year.
Sabermetric
Abreu is one of the sabermetric darlings. I still do not fully see the case but in such a thin year on the ballot, his case is definitely on the better side of the ballot. Abreu was a near 400 on base percentage but the number that has defined basically his whole case is the mystical 60 bWAR threshold. He has 60.2 so he barely surpasses it, but that number has always led to people looking deeper into a player’s case in history and that is led by him being a five-tool player. A good defender with gold gloves, a 20 stolen base player whilst also hitting 20 home runs. Add this to his gap power and suddenly you have a man who can manufacture a consistent 4 bWAR year. The knock on Abreu for me at least has never been the consistency but more the peak. His most WAR in a year is 6.6, which pales in comparison to some of the others on this ballot and that level was sustained. That is the level of a good all star but not a true superstar. To be fair though, Abreu was never positioned as a super star but more as a great player for a long time.
Stathead
Abreu is one of eight post-integration players to have over seven season of 40 doubles or more in a year, putting him in some elite territory for gap power post-integration.
Verdict
This ballot is thin, so Abreu has a chance. I think he gets a vote from me despite being a hard sell for me in the past. This is more to keep his case for later. (1/10)
Carlos Beltran
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Hopefully this is the year we can stop the Beltran discussions. Hopefully he just gets in and we do not have to hear about one final stretch at the end of his career where he masterminded a cheating scandal that somehow is enough for people to ignore the years of incredible production. A fast, gold glove winning, powerhouse of a player who hit over 430 home runs in his career. The case really is that simple and that is without any mention of his stardom and the heavy money thrown around him to acquire him. Heck, he was the man tasked with replacing Albert Pujols on the Cardinals towards the end of his career and he was a key offensive piece in a pennant winning lineup at age 36. He was never the batting average guy but why would you care when he was a good defender who could hit 30 home runs consistently. The Astros scandal really hurt him and he should not have lost a managerial position because of it, but it does affect the traditional side of his case.
Sabermetric
Beltran has over 70 bWAR and has a career similar to Andre Dawson when it comes to his peak of power and speed. The defense is backed up with metrics that grade him out quite well at the position of center field no less. A near 120 OPS+ bat for his entire career with numbers going as high as 150 in some hard parks to hit in. An efficient base stealer as well, with over 300 bases stolen whilst being caught less than 50 times. He also walked in nearly 10% of his career plate appearances and helping his home run production was an above average fly ball percentage whilst beating the MLB average of pull rate during his time by over 7%. He was made to be an extra base hit machine with his approach at the plate.
Stathead
Beltran is one of three players in baseball history to play a majority of his career in center field and hit over 400 home runs whilst having more than 40 fielding runs. It shows his level of high defense and offense that he was able to sustain throughout his career.
Verdict
He will get in this year and hopefully it will make the paths to the hall for people like Altuve easier. He gets my vote. (2/10)
Ryan Braun
I thought it would be weird if I did not let a Brewers fan speak on Braun considering this ballot breakdown comes from Wisconsin so here it goes
Thanks to Sports Director Vince Hesprich
There is absolutely a world in which Ryan Braun is a firm member of the Wisconsin Sports Mount Rushmore. Sure, his overall talent would never equal guys like Reggie White, Kareem or Hank Aaron, but what Braun possessed, more than anyone in the history of Dairyland sports, was timing.
Not timing as in “swing at the right time for a base hit,” (also Braun had plenty of that) but literal timing as in “arriving at the scene at the perfect moment.” 2008 was a weird year for Wisconsin sports. Longtime Packer hero Brett Favre was playing in New York while the jury was still out on that new guy from California. The 26-win Bucks were Michael Redd-y for another rebuild. Even the usually surefire Wisconsin Football team managed just three conference wins despite having beloved head coach Brett Bielema at the reins. Wisconsin needed a distraction from everything 2008 brought both related and unrelated to sports. It needed an icon. It needed Ryan Braun.
Ok, that sounds dramatic. But I really cannot emphasize enough just how perfect of a year 2008 was for an upstart baseball player to steal the state’s heart. Milwaukee called itself a baseball town, but the Brewers were so irrelevant that I felt no need to even list them in the paragraph above. The playoff drought was in year 24. Attendance was near the bottom of the league. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say the only reason the Brewers were still in Milwaukee was that MLB Commissioner Bud Selig would fire new owner Mark Attanasio into the sun if he even said a word that rhymed with “relocation.” (Pigmentation? Coagulation?) But with the spotlight up for grabs, Ryan Braun shrugged his shoulders and stole the show.
Fresh off winning Rookie of the Year, the 24-year-old third baseman outfielder drove in 106 runs and mashed 37 homers en route to placing top three in MVP voting. Even more importantly, Braun’s Brewers made the playoffs. The Brewers had pulled off the heist of the century and were more relevant than ever before. Three million people pulled up to Miller Park that year: a full million more than in 1982, when the Brewers made the World Series. Braun was suddenly the king of the badger state.
Now I know what you’re thinking. “Wasn’t CC Sabathia the real reason the Brewers made the playoffs in ‘08?” Yes, that’s 100% correct. But two things happened in the offseason that cemented Braun as the face of Wisconsin sports. Firstly, CC left for the Yankees. Totally unsurprising. Small market teams losing their stars is the expectation. Secondly, Braun signed an eight-year extension. That was VERY surprising. For the first time since Robin Yount, the Brewers had a star who felt like he truly wanted to be in Milwaukee. In short, CC Sabathia was the face of the 2008 Brewers. Ryan Braun was the face of the Brewers, period.
Suddenly, Braun’s face was everywhere. He was on Billboards all over I-95. His face was on every Krik Trip gas station. His swing was on my Grandma’s cookie jar. His name was on the back of my first jersey. Even when Aaron Rodgers won the Super Bowl in the 2010 season, Braun’s MVP-winning 2011 season kept him at position 1B in the list of most beloved Wisconsin athletes. Through a combination of his play, his personality and his commitment to Milwaukee, Ryan Braun earned the trust of Wisconsin.
That trust, that love, that respect is why nobody in Wisconsin believed the report that Ryan Braun had tested positive for PEDs in 2011. Braun gave Wisconsinites permission to feel that way. When he said he was innocent, Wisconsin believed him. When he said MLB’s drug testing system was broken and rigged against him, Wisconsin believed him. And when he said MLB’s drug tester had basically set him up, Wisconsin, again, believed him. Why shouldn’t they? Trust is earned through experience, and nobody in Dairyland had a negative experience with the state’s unofficial leader. Heck, even Aaron Rodgers publicly supported him. Wisconsin backed their guy and, in turn, celebrated the loudest when Braun became the first MLB player ever to successfully appeal a drug-based suspension. The good guys won. The bad guys lost.
Every athlete has a career-defining moment where they reach their absolute apex. For many athletes, that moment is a championship, or an award or even just an incredible individual play. Ryan Braun convincing Wisconsin of his innocence was his apex because it was the last time my home state did not view Braun as the fraudulent, lying, cheating, narcissistic conman he really is.
The debate over how performance-impacting drugs influence an MLB player’s Hall of Fame chances will likely never have a singular philosophy. Some people view PEDs as a calculated gamble that has no moral implications. Others view it as a permanent disqualification from the hall. What I argue is that Braun’s PED use is far less relevant or important than the lies that followed it.
Ryan Braun earned Wisconsin’s trust by cheating. When he was caught, he cashed in every ounce of that trust in an effort to continue cheating. A decade later, the entire situation is a sore subject for everyone involved. The league wants Braun’s attack on their credibility forgotten. The vast majority of Brewers fans in Wisconsin want their misguided defense of Braun forgotten. The rest of the league does not care about Braun in the first place because his post-cheating career was not good enough to warrant any meaningful conversation. The Hall of Fame is designed to help us remember. I don’t want to remember Ryan Braun.
Mark Buehrle
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You will never see someone throw like Mark Buehrle again. Mark Buehrle threw over 200 innings consistently for a decade and a quality 200 at that. Remember when I talked about consistency with Abreu without the great? The same problem does come up here but unlike Abreu, I think this is great because we will not see a man pitch like this again. He was not a strikeout guy at all, but he was a great groundball pitcher who was an incredible fielder. The gold gloves precede his reputation. He was only in the Cy Young conversation once but he does have some of the greatest moments of 21st century baseball. The perfect game, the no hitter, the backhand plays, the world series and now the number retirement in the Southside of Chicago. An icon of White Sox history.
Sabermetric
Buehrle was bottom ten in the league in fastball velocity whilst being in the top 15 of pitchers in his league. That is just how far back pitching data goes because that number would probably stay the same going back to 2005. He also has cleared that 60 pitching WAR threshold on baseball reference (Fangraphs usually does a weird job evaluating groundball pitchers). The inning totals and ERA+ are really the story. A career 117 ERA+ whilst pitching the volume he did in the 2000s is incredible and he did it by having pitches that did a great job generating weak contact. We never had the bad Mark Buehrle because he retired the moment he pitched just less than 200 innings in a season. He was also incredible at preventing the long ball with a HR/9 of less than 1 for his whole career. His volume is unmatched in today’s game and that volume tells me the story.
Stathead
This is a simple one. Here is every pitcher in the 2000s to have eight or more seasons of above average production (105 ERA+) where they pitched over 200 innings. Simply the king of having consistently good production.
Verdict
Buehrle will always be one of my guys. He gets my vote and will remain one of my all time favorite pitchers. (3/10)
Shin-Soo Choo
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A trailblazer for Korean position players in a lot of ways. He has not shot to stay on the ballot or even get a vote but let us remember how good of a player Choo was. A 20-20 bat in his prime while having seasons of an above 300 average. Outside of that, his traditional case does not really exist. Only a one time all star with a few top 15 MVP votes in there, he also finished his career with less than 2000 hits. He also only had 218 home runs for his career. A great career but just not enough volume to justify a vote.
Sabermetric
Shin-Soo Choo had a great on base peak along with full seasons of above average production from the plate. He was in the top of the league when it came to chase rate and hard hit rate and was able to produce top of the line exit velocity to match that. Good production at his peak but an inability to fully sustain it in MLB to get those top of the line numbers to get him into the hall.
Stathead
Shin-Soo Choo is one of 10 players between 2008 and 2013 to have five seasons of 3.5 bWAR and an OPS+ of over 120. A good group of great hitters who played good enough defense to stay up to a pretty high level.
Verdict
I mean no way anyone votes for him but his impact on Korean position players can’t be understated.
Edwin Encarnacion
Traditional
The first guy who I actually think might have a shot to stay on the ballot. Even then he probably will not but one statistic defined Encarnacion’s shot to stay on in the traditional sense. He has 400 home runs and was one of the premier power bats of the 2010s. Starting in Cincinnati and showing sparks, he was the piece to bring Scott Rolen to the Reds and the other way went a great third baseman in his own right. I mean he barely played the position but his power was great for any position. Those mid 2010s Blue Jays teams can be easily summed up in Bautista, Donaldson and Encarnacion as the powerhouse offense. He is under 2000 hits and never won big power things like a home run title or the home run derby. It will definitely be an interesting case though.
Sabermetric
He does kind of get clowned on for being the classic case of how home runs really got inflated in the past era due to the emphasis on power hitting as time goes on. I do feel bad about that though. He never had the elite on base skills of someone like Joey Gallo whilst he never had the slugging peak of people like Nelson Cruz in that era. He was just a really solid power hitter. Nothing more, nothing less. Even in his best power year in 2016, he was not elite when it came to exit velocity. His major plus was his ability to not chase whilst barreling a lot, something that continued even till 2020. He was just the power bat, DH type that a team wants and that is all you can ask for sometimes.
Stathead
Very simple one. Encarnacion had eight seasons of 30 homers or more in the 2010s. No one else had more than six. A consistent hitter unlike many.
Verdict
Part of me thinks it would be funny to just throw him a vote considering I have nine I want and a tenth practically waiting for a vote. I will circle back later.
Gio Gonzalez
Traditional
Look there is kind of no chance he stays on the ballot, and I do not think he gets a vote, but a weaker year does mean we get some awesome people getting ballot space and that needs to be respected. Gonzalez was pretty much your median for a good starter in MLB. An average of a qualified season of a 3.68 ERA is just solid production. You cannot fault that in any way. He definitely had some great mixed in there but it is just good work. He only had 130 wins and less than 2000 strikeouts but his 2012 really stands out. A 21-6 record with a 2.89 ERA in just under 200 innings of work with a top three Cy Young finish is great stuff. Great that he is on the ballot.
Sabermetric
I am really surprised he did not get any major looks for the Cy Young in 2017. Scherzer was better and sure he was maybe the third best starter with Strasburg also doing great work but being injured. It is just a solid good season. He did have a bit of a walk problem without any major strikeout stuff but again, many others have managed base paths in different ways and Gonzalez was good at limiting the long ball throughout his career. He was a slower pitcher when it came to fastball velocity but his money was really a curveball that was his main off-speed offering. A curveball he threw to both handed batters quite often and in over 7397 curveballs he threw in the majors, only 16 were hit for home runs. A good pitcher who had great stretches for sure.
Stathead
The only pitcher with over 1500 innings pitched in 2010s as good at preventing home runs as Gio Gonzalez was Clayton Kershaw. Elite production when it comes to preventing the long ball
Verdict
Great that he is on the ballot but I will be surprised if he gets a vote.
Alex Gordon
Traditional
A Royals lifer, Alex Gordon should have already probably had his number 4 retired in Kansas City but whenever it does get hung up at Kaufman, we can truly talk about his long term legacy. Another player who was just a pretty good player. The eight gold gloves he won along with the two platinum gloves mask that his offensive peak was quite good. He led the league in doubles in 2012 and in the first run the Royals made to the World Series, he was one of their best players. The downfall starts from there but his reputation with the glove and his arm was universal. He does not have the counting numbers though so it really means he has no shot but some Kansas City based voters will absolutely have a vote for him and a place in the Royals hall of fame for being a part of the best Kansas City run since their World Series win in 1985.
Sabermetric
I really hate to be this person since defensive metrics are still not perfect. However, Gordon was just an alright defender by all metrics. The arm was legit at times but defensive metrics fluctuating this much does mean something is up for me. For now what I will say is that nothing is tangibly exceptional about Gordon as a defender. A 36 year old man who was not fast being forced to cover Kaufmann Stadium and the second biggest outfield in baseball is a lot to ask for. His baseline was a solid and at times good defender and that is fine. By the end, the bat was not good but the early 2010s version of Gordon could have been a hall of famer if it sustained. A 121 OPS+ between 2011 and 2015 whilst constantly winning gold gloves is exactly what you would want. On top of all of this, he was a Royals lifer. What else can you ask for?
Stathead
Another simple one. Gordon was a top five Royals hitter by WAR in their history and unlike Otis and Wilson, Gordon was a Royal the whole way.
Verdict
Some person in Missouri will vote for him. I have never been there but a great honor nonetheless.
Cole Hamels
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The only interesting first timer when it comes to their chances on the ballot. Hamels never reached 200 wins, never won the Cy Young despite receiving votes multiple times and never threw a perfect game. He did win World Series MVP and NLCS MVP in the same season when the Phillies went to and won the World Series. The main reason though is that Hamels has over 2500 strikeouts and has volume that we might not see again. The career 3.43 ERA with over 2500 innings pitched is a solid place for him to be as a lefty starter. Traditionally, there is a bit to be excited about. You cannot say that about a lot of people on this ballot.
Sabermetric
The sabermetrics do make this interesting though. That re-evaluation of starting pitching has to happen now and Hamels with his volume and ERA+ of 123 puts him in good standing. Being a part of the 2011 Phillies along with his other work anchoring that rotation also helps him. In many ways, he is very comparable to David Cone and like Cone, his case is very complicated. There is a world where he is a hall of famer but he would definitely be on the low end for pitchers with a volume argument. The peak is also not exceptional. There is volume here though for the 21st Century and that is what should be focused on. A heavy strikeout pitcher with volume is just not what today’s baseball is defined by. He also was able to have people chase and a pitch selection that had five very solid and constantly used options. In many ways though, his case stands out on this ballot. On last year’s, he would have been a bit lost in the shuffle.
Stathead
This is what made it interesting for me though. The only left-handed pitchers in history with 2500 strikeouts and an ERA+ of 120 for their career. Hamels makes the cut. This is just pure results and strikeout stuff and nothing else fancy.
Verdict
I would feel really bad not voting for a single first ballot person but Hamels might have even got my vote without it. He joins my ballot. (4/10)
Felix Hernandez
Traditional
Very hard for me to have no bias here. I am a Mariners fan and this is one of my favorite pitchers of all time. Right up there with some of most watched former Mariners to me when it came to searching up full broadcast and just taking in some quality pitching from The King. The fall off was hard, yes, but Felix’s peak is right up there with the best. The 2010 Cy Young win that changed how that award was voted on forever. The perfect game. The stardom. He had it all. He even had 2500 strikeouts despite him being done in the majors at age 33. If only he aged with just a slight bit more grace. If injuries had allowed just one more major 200 strikeout monster year. If he was not forced to pitch for 100 loss teams and be their King. Where would Felix be without the Mariners though? His number 34 should absolutely be hanging in T Mobile Park.
Sabermetric
Coming back to that reevaluation process, King Felix should probably be the start point of exactly that. He was the best pitcher in the AL during the early 2010s who could strike out guys at insanely high levels. He was also great at limiting people on the base paths with elite hit per nine totals. He also struck out people at higher rate than the league whilst walking people at a lower rate than the rest of the league. He had about 50 bWAR at the end of his career so its not full volume when it comes to a career. In his prime though, not many were at his level.
Stathead
The only player between 2008 and 2014 with 1500 innings and an ERA+ of 135 was King Felix. The best pitcher in baseball for quite a while there
Verdict
The most obvious yes as a Mariners fan. (5/10)
Torii Hunter
Traditional
I really do not know how Torii Hunter stays on the ballot. At least traditionally his whole case is his just under 2500 hits and the gold gloves he won that show his reputation as a good defender throughout the 2000s. He was never really the biggest star except for that one time he robbed a home run from Bonds in the all star game. He does also have over 350 home runs but there is nothing truly exciting about his traditional case.
Sabermetric
There are quite a few statistical people who love Hunter. I am not one of those people if I am being honest. He does have over 50 bWAR but he was also not exceptional throughout his career at defense. In fact he was actively hurting teams towards the end, if defensive metrics are to be believed. He also only has 2 seasons over 5 bWAR which is very low quality and his peak does not fully excite me. In the end, there is not much sabermetrically that I see at least.
Stathead
From 2001 to 2012, only three outfielders had over 60 fielding runs and an OPS+ of 110 or more. Torii Hunter had the highest OPS+ of the group.
Verdict
Nothing excites me here honestly. Even with the weak ballot I am not going to be in on Hunter.
Andruw Jones
He will probably get in. I just feel uncomfortable talking about him considering other parts of his life. I will not be voting for him. While we are it, no Omar Vizquel talk either. Absolutely insane that he gained votes over the years after the stories that have come out about him.
Matt Kemp
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Matt Kemp is a really weird one. He is the epitome of highs and lows but the highs being super high and the lows being near on unwatchable and unplayable. Looking at just gold gloves and silver sluggers, he has two of them along with an MVP runner up that should probably have been a win for what was his near 40-40 masterpiece in 2011. Him against Braun will always be the ultimate robbery for MVP. One everyone agrees with especially with new context of Braun’s steroid use. He was then awarded the most expensive contract in Dodgers history. The Dodgers were then rewarded with constant injuries, Kemp becoming a really bad outfielder (we will get to this later) and a contract that became the albatross of the league. The speed was long gone and what was now left was a shell of an outfielder with not much to offer offensively. Such an interesting case study of modern baseball and it only gets weirder with the sabermetric look.
Sabermetric
Yeah so Kemp was never good in the outfield. In fact at times he was really bad. What is also fascinating about Kemp is he only has four seasons above 2 bWAR, the level at which your average MLB starting position player should be. He was a good hitter for sure but by the end, he was moved to the corner outfield where his hitting just was not as valuable. Kemp is the fifth worst outfielder by fielding runs of all time. It was a bad contract for sure but you just felt bad for him by the end. The offense was there but his body just did not hold up and the defense got really bad. By 28, he was done as a starting caliber outfielder or designated hitter type. The highs early on really made it seem like there was a star but the defense, inconsistency and injury luck cost him.
Stathead
Might not be 40-40 but out of 39+ home runs and 40+ steals, Matt Kemp’s 2011 is a top 5 year in that group. That is ahead of some impressive names like Jose Canseco and Alfonso Soriano among members of the 40-40 club.
Howie Kendrick
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Howie Kendrick will go down as a Nationals legend and I think history will fail to remember him as a pretty good Angel in the period that led to the real dark times in Anaheim baseball. Just a solid second baseman with nothing much about him to suggest hall of famer. He was just really good and I am happy to see he is on the ballot. No major milestones and less than 150 home runs along with only one all star game and one time on the down ballot for MVP means he will probably not even get a vote. Think of what he represents though. The doink that still resonates in the streets of DC to this day. The one that helped them win in 2019. The MVP of the NLCS in 2019 before retiring quietly in the pandemic. A playoff legend if anything else.
Sabermetric
Nothing much to see here. He has about 35 bWAR which is on the lower end of newcomers to the ballot and he probably will not get a vote to stay on the ballot. He is competing against some of the all timer second basemen on this ballot alone when it comes to Pedroia and Utley so even in that way, he does not fully stand out. He is just solid and you cannot really ask for much else. Sadly, solid does not give you grace on the ballot.
Stathead
For second basemen in the 2000s, Kendrick is one of three to have a batting average above .290 with over 100 steals and over 350 doubles. It shows his solid contact hitting and gap power combination with a good amount of speed to help.
Verdict
Another player I will be surprised if they get a vote.
Nick Markakis
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Markakis is one of the players I think about way too much. Just such a weird career in the best ways possible. By age 33, he had 2000 hits and had never made an all-star game. Then in 2018, he appears to have the surge to 3000 with 185 at age 34. He finally made the all star game and MLB would not have to face the fact of a potential 3000 hit candidate never being good enough to make the all-star game. He would quite quickly then fall off the wagon but the scare was certainly there and the coverage of that scare is hilarious to me. I need the world where he is a 3000-hit player. It is just too entertaining to me. He ended up with 2300 hits which is well short but 2000 hits are indeed 2000 hits.
Sabermetric
So weird the further you look. His “breakout” or “comeback” 2018, whatever you want to call it, was not even that impressive but man the hits are just so consistent throughout. He somehow led the league in bWAR in 2008 which makes things even funnier because he never reaches even half that total ever again. He was also kept as a good defender who won gold gloves despite somehow never being good there either. I guess just having good hit totals and being a chill guy was enough to do. What is weirder for me is his more than 500 doubles as well to go with his just above 30 bWAR. Then there is the Savant data. He remained elite throughout his career at not whiffing on pitches but the 2018 percentile rankings are crazy. He was 96th percentile in strikeout rate, 90th percentile in chase rate and 99th percentile in whiff rate. Just an eternally weird baseball stat sheet to look at. Need the world where he was a 3000 hit player.
Stathead
These are hitters with over 2300 hits and 500 doubles but under 200 home runs. These are pure contact hitters and Markakis is in the same tier as Gwynn and Boggs. Wild stuff.
Verdict
I think there is a world where Markakis would be made to wait even if he had 3000 hits so this version probably does not get a vote but what a hilarious baseball player.
Daniel Murphy
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Daniel Murphy had quite a short time in the spotlight but he was a fine player for sure. When it comes to the term elite gap power, Murphy really exemplifies what that means. He might not have been elite speed but his double ability was quite unmatched in his best years of 2016 and 2017. 2016 was the year he would finish second to Kris Bryant in what ended up being a bit of a wash as an MVP race but this is a man who has been given a first place vote in the past. Not many players can say that. All of this was kicked off with his great 2015 postseason where he led the Mets to the 2015 World Series, winning NLCS MVP on the way. Very Mets thing then to let him walk to the division rivals and let him have his best years but anyway. The lack of milestones means there is a cap on his place on the ballot but being on the ballot is an honor in itself for someone who struggled to stay on the field and was a great player when was on the field.
Sabermetric
Murphy was never the best second base defender but he was a fine offensive player. Murphy was great at avoiding the strikeout and generated good quality contact without the elite power numbers. Peaks of an OPS Of above .900 along with 20 plus home run years. Generating good expected slugging numbers as well without that high end barrell rate or exit velocity is also very impressive in its own way. There is a part of me that wants to say Murphy would be a more interesting hall of fame look if he does not get injured as much and more things go his way but I cannot fully say that when his best years still never eclipsed 5 bWAR and he finished his career with just over 20. Striking out just about 8% less than the league average though is very impressive in its own way.
Stathead
Between 2012 and 2017, Daniel Murphy led the league in doubles over a crop of very impressive players of the era. He has 10 more than Altuve in this period as well.
Verdict
Another hard sell for me. Going to be a no.
Dustin Pedroia
Traditional
A hard one. Pedroia’s peak was one of the best second basemen of his era, if not all time. He was a gritty, short, but fierce player. He got about 11% of the vote the first time out and that is definitely enough to go on a full journey. There is not doubt that without the injuries, Petey was a hall of famer. That is the sad thing though. A lot of his career was in and out of lineups through injury and by age 33, he was done as a big leaguer. He never reached 2000 hits despite being a hit machine in his early days. His gold gloves and silver sluggers along with his Rookie of the Year and MVPs go really well with his two rings that really should be three. That 2018 team was built out of pure revenge and the will to avenge all those who injured Pedroia. His peak was as a hall of famer, it really depends just how much you care about the counting numbers in this case. Pedroia simply does not have those.
Sabermetric
Pedroia finished his career with 51.8 bWAR and his 162-game average was a 5.6 bWAR player. That is crazy to think about. His average 162 games was a high-end all-star. Defensive metrics also back up his reputation and OPS+ shows him as a premier bat at the second base position. A strikeout rate that was more than 10% lower than the league average for his entire career as well. Looking at his career OPS+, 113 seems low until you look up the second basemen past that line and it is just a list of some of the best of all time. Pedroia then defended like a hall of famer as well. Top 10 all time among people who primarily played the position by fielding runs. If only we had a healthy Pedroia, we could be looking at an inner circle great.
Stathead
These are two Stathead searches. One is post-integration second basemen with an OPS+ above 110 and then post-integration second basemen with over 100 fielding runs. Only two names cross over and both are on this ballot. Pedroia, however, shows that even without a lack of volume, he was one of the best players when it comes to pure tools at the position all time.
Verdict
As a primary peak voter, Pedroia still has enough volume for me to want to vote for him. He gets a place on my ballot for sure. (6/10)
Hunter Pence
Traditional
This was the surprising name. There is always one you completely did not think about appearing and then they do. Hunter Pence was a fine player but what an honor to be on the ballot for him. He was a two time champion with four all star game appearances under his belt and was kind of what you wanted to see from a solid MLB corner outfielder. A 20 home run bat, decent speed and consistently available. Again, like many, a lack of milestones and star power will hurt his chances on this ballot of getting a vote but the biggest honor is being on here in the first place. He was that kind of player throughout though to be fair. Good enough to get some down ballot MVP recognition and contribute to championship teams, but never elite enough to be the center piece.
Sabermetric
As said above, Pence was just a fine outfielder throughout and sometimes that is okay. He definitely fits the “has higher WAR than I expected” category though. He has about 31 and most of it comes with the Astros. Having statistics that say he was better outside of San Francisco is funny to me. Pence was not a game changer with his glove but he never needed to be to be fair. He was able to handle the wall in Oracle Park quite well throughout. His 2011 is quite good though, especially as I love seeing good rental trades working out with Pence getting 2.3 bWAR out of only 54 games in Philadelphia. Pence then just aged out of his home run power slowly without much else to see outside of him absolutely recognizing he can use the 2019 juiced ball for more power. The exit velocity and pull rate jump ups are quite fun to see because it just shows he definitely realized the ball was flying more than it usually would. Great to see he is on the ballot.
Stathead
The only player between 2008 and 2014 to have 20 home runs and at least 5 stolen bases in each season is Hunter Pence. It showcases his solid power and stolen base ability with both those numbers going into great to elite tiers.
Andy Pettite
Traditional
Pettitte is very hard to talk about. He has no chance to get into the hall due to his connections to Steroids but I do feel a bit of sympathy in his case. He would have been very interesting to look at without the connections. Another reason I feel bad is that he publicly came out, admitted and apologized for his connections to PEDs in an era when not many were. His playoff resume is stellar with the most wins is postseason history along with 250 of his own in the regular season. An interesting case that in his eight year is pretty much confirmed to be going nowhere.
Sabermetric
Pettitte is basically a slightly worse and more tainted version of the Mussina case from a few years ago but again, it sadly will be going nowhere due to the PED connections. Pettitte has about 60 bWAR along with over 3300 innings pitched. We simply will not see numbers like that again and his ERA+ of 117 while not top of the line, is definitely good enough. It feels just a bit too nothing to talk about any deeper dives into the case though, as statistics are not the reason Pettitte is not being considered.
Stathead
Here are starters in the divisional era who had 13 or more seasons of an ERA+ of at least 110 but less than 200 strikeouts. These are the truly elite groundball pitchers in the strikeout era.
Verdict
Not for me. I do feel bad for him though.
Rick Porcello
Traditional
I expected this one and I am so happy it happened. What a world to live in where Rick Porcello is on the hall of fame ballot because he won the 2016 Cy Young. The only reason why he is here is that award because imagine leaving out an award winner. Sure an award win so bad it had us rethinking voting but an award win. 22 wins in 2016 is why he won. What a wonderful world. What a truly wonderful world that an inning eater is on the ballot.
Sabermetric
He has 18.8 bWAR as a starting pitcher who threw over 2000 innings. He is bottom 10 in the wildcard era among pitchers who have thrown 2000 by ERA+. He is below average for his career and he is on the ballot. What a career for the ballot. Verlander obviously should have won it but with Verlander winning, we would never have Rick Porcello on a hall of fame ballot. Let us just appreciate it then. Here he is in all his glory. A Chad Innings Eater on a hall of fame ballot. A man who never made the all star game in the same place as Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran.
Stathead
The last player to have 22 wins in a year? Rick Porcello in 2016. The ultimate individual achievement for a pitcher, having your offense score more runs than what you gave up.
Verdict
You do not know how bad I want to do this but sadly I have to be a serious journalist.
Manny Ramirez
Traditional
No good faith argument can really be made about Manny either so I won’t. He has the milestones but he also did PEDs throughout and got caught way after he should have. The only interesting thing that could happen is that it his tenth year so out of nowhere he gets an unprecedented double of the percent he got earlier. I do not think this happens.
Sabermetric
I mean what is interesting to me is Manny being a bottom 10 defender of all time yet not being the worst on the ballot by fielding runs. That is quite funny to me.
Stathead
The only players in baseball history with an OPS+ above 150 with less than 50 steals. Fun little stat I am going to think about way more than I should.
Verdict
No and I think it would be really funny if he gets in.
Alex Rodriguez
You cannot really do Arod in the format I like to do these in. He is probably the greatest infielder of all time so why would you need me to dissect the sabermetrics to tell you how good Alex Rodriguez is? The complication with PEDs are the only thing stopping him from being an inner circle unanimous hall of famer. He has 117.4 BWAR. What else do you want? Maybe the veteran’s committee potentially putting in either Bonds or Clemens changes things but for now, no one with connections like Rodriguez has got in. It will be hard to say the least is all. He gets my vote though. He is too good for me to not do so. (7/10)
Francisco Rodriguez
Traditional
In a traditional case, only one thing matters and that is saves. K-Rod had about 300 by age 30 and looked firmly on the path before things fell apart and he only managed to finish with 437. Still puts him at sixth all time, but you cannot act like more could have happened here. He does also have personal and character issues through his career that will affect him traditionally. He also has the single season save record which is definitely an underrated record. Being done by age 35 as a reliever pretty much ends his hall of fame case but being high on the saves list means he will definitely stay around on future ballots.
Sabermetric
If Billy Wagner was a massive conversation, K-Rod will be a very hard sell. The ERA+ is 30 points lower than Wagner’s along with a lot of his accomplishments being beaten by people like Kimbrel and Jansen. He has also never reached the peaks of someone like Wagner. K-Rod had an impressive 263 ERA+ in 2006 but that number was outdone by Wagner four times in his career, which includes his last year in the big leagues. He also had over 100 strikeouts as a reliever only once which is an impressive number a deeper look might want. There is not much to the deeper case as a reliever that excites in the same way Wagner did.
Stathead
K-Rod had the second most saves before the age of 30 of any reliever. It shows the historic pace he was on, that has been overshadowed by the start of Craig Kimbrel.
Verdict
I look for a case to excite me and this one does not fully do that. Going to a be a no for me.
Jimmy Rollins
Traditional
I actually have not seen someone who is a Jimmy Rollins voter which is why I find it interesting he stays on the ballot so consistently. Rollins was a good player who won MVP in 2007 in a very depleted year for the NL. Rollins has over 2400 hits which absolutely bolsters the traditional case along with the gold glove and silver slugger reputation he has. The batting averages were never insanely high but when Rollins got on, he was a menace on the base paths. He peaked at 47 in that area. He also had 30 home runs in his MVP year to compliment the 41 steals he had. The high triples totals also helped him a lot, a consistent extra base hit machine due to his pace. He obviously aged out of his skill set which put a cap on the length of his career but prime Rollins was one of the best shortstops in the league.
Sabermetric
Rollins has less than 50 bWAR as a result of having a 95 OPS+ for his career and sure, he had his peaks as a defender but he never reached the levels of someone who could compensate fully for the lack of offensive output. His highest OPS+ in a year was 119 which is quite low for a hall of fame level shortstop when it comes on what to vote for. Outside of that? I do not have a lot. There really is not much to break down with Rollins as the traditional case pretty much tells you everything. He is a solid player who reached some milestones so voters are happy to keep him around.
Stathead
Here are post-integration players with over 2400 hits, 100 triples and 450 steals. This puts Rollins in quite a solid group of people in the hall of fame or in the case of Lofton, someone who should absolutely be in the hall of fame
Verdict
This case especially does not excite me. He reminds me of Torii Hunter in that way. He will stay on but I probably will not contribute to that.
Chase Utley
Traditional
If I did a breakdown of the first time Utley was on the ballot, I might not have voted for him. The year after that when I wrote the breakdown last year, Utley started to excite me and I voted for him. We are now in year three, and now I am on the front line that Chase Utley NEEDS to be in the hall of famer and is one of the best second basemen of all time. Traditionally, it is insane how someone with his defensive reputation never won the gold glove. He won four silver slugger awards and was a key piece for the 2008 Phillies that won the World Series. Still, the man never reached 2000 hits and has less than 300 home runs. He also had low steal totals throughout his career but a consistent number of around 15. He has led the league in hit by pitches multiple times though on account of what was a less than stellar reputation as a person. Nothing major in terms of awful things he has done, but on the baseball field he was seen as a menace in a bad way. It is realizing that his reputation probably robbed him of so many traditional awards that has fully converted me.
Sabermetric
This is really what built Utley’s rocket ship that might get him to Cooperstown. 64.5 bWAR due to him being built for the stat. An uber efficient base stealer, a premium glove at a premium position, a great bat for the position as well and some power in the bat. A 117 OPS+ bat at second base with above average rates when it comes to strikeout and home run percentage. He has 133 fielding runs at second base and somehow never won a gold glove. That is a robbery if I have ever seen one. His five-year peak of nearly 40 bWAR is one of the best at the second base position as well. An incredible peak and one that might be having voters look over the lack of 2000 hits, a number seen as the minimum hit threshold for the hall of fame in the past.
Stathead
The two best players between 2005 and 2009 were Pujols and Chase Utley. Pujols has a top 10 peak all time by the stats and Utley is right up there with him.
Verdict
The year where Utley can make up some serious ground is here. Lets see if he does so. He gets my vote (8/10)
David Wright
Traditional
I did not have enough space last year to vote for Wright but I have always been a fan of him. He might also be the most universally liked person on the ballot. He is nicknamed Captain America for a reason. Wright is another player who was wrecked by injuries that derailed what looked like a certain hall of fame case. Wright was a new era third baseman in the 2000s. An offense first bat who played good enough defense to keep him there. He lost his chance at 2000 hits and 300 home runs, numbers that would have solidified his hall of fame case. This would have also been a case where the character clause would have easily bolstered a rock solid case. Wright was such a plus as a person that it kind of needed to be factored in. Wright could even steal bases at a decent level before the back injuries took everything away from him. Wright would have been a slam dunk without his injuries but his peak still might be enough.
Sabermetric
Wright is a 133 OPS+ bat at third base. Better on base ability might have had him challenging to be a 3-4-5 bat which not many in history can say. Wright also had a 162 game average of 5 bWAR which means that every 162 he played was the 162 game equivalent of an average all star. A 20-20 player in his prime, the peak is enough for me to be moved by Wright’s case. The longevity really is more of the finishing part and decider for me whereas the peak is really where the case gets defined. Wright’s case is defined as the best player in a big market through some of that market’s roughest times as a franchise. During the peak of when everyone made fun of the Mets, no one made fun of David Wright. That is what I think about.
Stathead
Here are third basemen with over 6800 plate appearances sorted by OPS+. Wright gets put in the over 130 OPS+ club with five of the greatest to ever do it.
Verdict
Wright gets my final vote as the last person on the ballot. (9/10)
Final Ballot
Bobby Abreu
Carlos Beltran
Mark Buehrle
Cole Hamels
Felix Hernandez
Dustin Pedroia
Alex Rodriguez
Chase Utley
David Wright
There really is not a tenth person I can justify voting for on this ballot personally so that is why I have only voted for nine.
Thanks so much to Stathead for the searches and thanks to Vince again for his piece on Braun.
