By David Giardino (@giardino_david)

The field is officially set for the 2025 NBA playoffs. With just 4 games separating the 2 and 8 seeds in the West and some intriguing matchups in the middle of the East, it is looking like it’s going to be a very exciting first round. Here are my predictions for how each first-round series will look:

East:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers vs 8. Miami Heat:Cavs in 4.

There is not a lot of analysis needed to decide the outcome of the series. The Miami Heat just became the first 10 seed ever to make the playoffs with just 37 wins in the regular season and are running into a Cavs team that has been an absolute juggernaut all year. Where Cleveland wins this series is in the halfcourt. They posted the second-most efficient offense in NBA history this year averaging 121 points per 100 possessions behind their 3 stars in Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Evan Mobley. The key for Cleveland is how they’re going to guard Tyler Herro, the only guy on the Heat that can really create his own shot vs a Cavs team that doesn’t really have a great point of attack defender. They’re going to have to funnel him into Mobley and Jarrett Allen as much as possible and try and get him to play inside out. The key to this series for Miami is finding any secondary scoring, if not Herro who? One of Bam Adebayo or Andrew Wiggins is going to have to step up their scoring if Miami has any chance of winning this series. Overall maybe Herro goes nuclear and Cleveland goes cold for a game and Miami steals 1 but I highly doubt it, this series will be over quick.

2. Boston Celtics vs 7. Orlando Magic: Celtics in 4.

One of the most high-powered offenses in the league vs one of the league’s best defenses in this series. While the Celtics kind of stumbled through the regular season they are getting healthy at the right time, hopefully getting a healthy playoff run from guys like Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. This is the same team that won the finals last year that has gotten really good regular seasons from some of their role players in Payton Pritchard and Luke Kornet. The core is still there with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, and Joe Mazzula is still one of the best offensive and defensive masterminds in basketball. Orlando on the other hand has had a weird year. Their two stars Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have both missed significant time with torn obliques and their third option Jalen Suggs is still out for the season. Regardless of who’s been on the court for the Magic they’ve had the same problems as last year. They have one of the worst half court offenses in basketball and are the worst jump shooting team in the league, which when put up against Boston who seemingly breaks a new 3pt record every night is not a recipe for success. Like the Cleveland/Miami series, maybe Orlando can steal a game if Banchero has a monster game and the Celtics can’t hit a shot but otherwise there’s just too much firepower on the Celtics side for this to be a close series.

3. New York Knicks vs 6. Detroit Pistons: Knicks in 6.

This is probably the most intriguing series in the East this year. The Knicks are rightfully the heavy favorites in this series but the Pistons have, dare I say the best player in this series and a very well rounded team. The reason I think New York has the clear edge in this series is that I still don’t think that Detroit has a five man lineup that can play well on both sides of the floor. Jalen Brunson should be able to get whatever he wants in this series. The Pistons have struggled all year guarding the pick and roll especially in their starting lineup with Jalen Duren having to play in deep drop. The Pistons are really prone to fouling in these situations which is where Brunson excels in the pick and roll. Additionally, the Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson lineup will give the Pistons a lot of problems with their size and versatility. On the Pistons side the main key to this series is the guard scoring outside of Cade Cunningham. I expect the Pistons to blitz Cunningham every chance they get so guys like Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. are going to have to shoot the ball well if Detroit is going to have a chance. Also, because of the scheme that New York is sure to have for Cunningham in the halfcourt, he’s going to have to find ways to get going in transition and ramp up the pace on a New York team that likes to play lower. Overall, New York not only has 2 of the best 3 and probably 4 of the best 5 players in this series, the personnel matches up well with what Detroit has shown in the regular season. These are sure to be very entertaining games but the Knicks will prevail in the end.

4. Indiana Pacers vs 5. Milwaukee Bucks: Bucks in 6.

So much of this series is going to come down to the availability of Damian Lillard. Luckily for Bucks fans this is not the reality of this ceiling and Lillard is projected to come back around game 2 or 3. With that being said, this also might be the biggest mismatch of role players in the playoffs this year. The Pacers can go 8 or 9 deep with guys that can contribute at a playoff level and are able to continue the game plan that Rick Carslile wants to put out there. Guys like Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Neesmith, and Obi Toppin have a chance to make a real impact on this series. The guy that will make the biggest impact on this series however for Indiana I think will be Myles Turner. As good of a rim protector as Brook Lopez is, he really struggles guarding more athletic centers that can take and make a high volume of 3s. Turner has averaged over 20 points per game in his career against Lopez in the playoffs and his presence will completely change the Buck’s defensive philosophy. For the Bucks, Doc Rivers is going to have to learn to change his rotations with the role players that are playing well. In the past Rivers has been incredibly stubborn with the guys he plays, and has left very room for change when the tides turn in playoff series. This might not be the best series for Lopez or Kyle Kuzma, and might favor guys like A.J Green or Gary Trent Jr. The Pacers have been one of the best shooting teams over the last couple of seasons, so the Bucks are going to have to shoot the ball well to keep up with Indiana. This series will come down to Indiana being able to play 48 minutes of clean basketball and limit cold stretches offensively and Milwaukee being able to have enough offense outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard to keep up with Indiana.

West:

1. Oklahoma City Thunder vs 8. Memphis Grizzlies: Thunder in 4.

As much as I hope this series goes five so I can see my favorite team play in the playoffs I really don’t see Memphis taking a game from OKC. The Thunder absolutely dominated the regular season series against Memphis, with the average margin of victory being over 15 points. Not much matchup wise to break down in this game, the Grizzlies do not have anybody they can stick on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to slow him down and their year long advantage in the paint over most teams will not be there against the Thunder’s two big lineup of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Additionally, Lu Dort has shown that he will be able to shut down whichever of Desmond Bane or Ja Morant is hot for the Grizzlies. Memphis just does not take care of the ball well enough and does not have a good enough halfcourt defense to stay with the Thunder.

2. Houston Rockets vs 7. Golden State Warriors: Warriors in 7.

Man this is going to be a great series. Houston surprised everyone, including myself, and finished the season as the second seed in the West. This is the first year that the Rockets have leaned into Alpren Sengun as their best player and it has paid dividends. Sengun is going to have a massive advantage in this series with the Warriors trotting out a starting lineup without a true center. Golden State will not play him straight up 1v1 this whole series, expect a lot of different double looks, a lot of jabs, trying to show him a lot of different things. Houston is also going to have to find some secondary scoring in this series. You know that Sengun is going to score but who of Jalen Green, Fred VanVleet, and Dillon Brooks are going to shoulder a secondary scorer role in this series. On the Golden State side so much of their gamplanning comes down to which of their 2 stars is Amen Thompson not the primary defender on. He has proven this year that he is capable of slowing down most stars in the league so if he is the primary guy on Stephen Curry like I believe he will be, Jimmy Butler is going to have to come out aggressive in this series. It will also be interesting what lineups Steve Kerr decides to go with in this series. Jonathan Kuminga has been one of the main keys in Golden State’s wins over Houston in the regular season this year but has mostly fallen out of the rotation towards the end of the year. Does Kerr stay with his closing bench or does he try to find Kuminga against an athletic Rockets team? This is going to be a chess match between Kerr and Rockets head coach Ime Udoka and the series will most likely come down to whichever team responds to the ebbs and flows of a long playoff series, in which case I will take the experienced Warriors.

3. Los Angeles Lakers vs 6. Minnesota Timberwolves. Lakers in 7.

This is by far the hardest series to choose in the West because these are two teams that have playoff experience and yet look very different than they did a year ago. I really think that this is another series that will come down to the role players. On the Lakers side, I really think Minnesota is going to try at all costs to get the ball out of Luka Doncic’s hands initially. I think last year proved that playing Luka in drop coverage with Gobert on the floor is not a reliable defensive strategy for the Timberwolves. Because I expect them to blitz Luka quite a bit, guys like Rui Hachimura, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Gabe Vincent are going to have to knock down shots to open up this series. Not only will this help the Lakers run smoothly offensively it will make Minnesota very uncomfortable offensively trying to match the Lakers output. This series will largely come down to which team can avoid cold spells on the offensive side of the ball. For Minnesota it starts and ends with Anthony Edwards. He is going to have to be in attack mode from the get go. The Lakers really do not have a good point of attack defender and have a lot of trouble navigating the pick and roll. Pull up 3s off the P&R will be there as well as opportunities to snake it and get into the paint. The second key for Minnesota is going to be where they position their shooters. The way the Lakers play help defense, someone is going to be open from 3 in the corner, but the Timberwolves need to make sure it is not consistently Julius Randle or Jaden McDaniels. Finally, Randle is going to have to dominate the non-Edwards minutes especially when the Lakers go small. Overall, I just think Los Angeles has much more consistency on the offensive side of the ball with the way they stagger Luka and LeBron James, and I just do not think that Minnesota has enough longevity offensively to keep up.

4. Denver Nuggetsvs 5. Los Angeles Clippers. Clippers in 6.

The Clippers have been the best team in basketball over the last couple of months and match up very well against the personnel of the Nuggets. This series will revolve around the matchup between Nikola Jokic and Ivica Zubac. For the Nuggets to win this series, Jokic is going to have to find a way to get Zubac in foul trouble on the offensive end and Denver is going to have to play really good team defense to cover up Jokic on the defensive end. Zubac all year has been very good at staying out of foul trouble, but he’s going to have to play a career high in minutes in this series so we’ll see if that conditioning fades as the series goes on. There are many different guys in this series that are great defenders but warrant zero attention on the other side. On the Clippers side Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr, and on the Nuggets side, Christian Braun and Peyton Watson. Which duo is going to knock down shots and help their stars on the offensive end. For the Clippers, pick and rolls are going to be their best friend. Kawhi Leonard and James Harden are going to have an absolute field day with Nikola Jokic in the pick and roll and should really be able to operate from the 3pt line to the basket. Adjustments are obviously going to be huge in this series but I think that overall LA’s defense matches up better with Denver’s offense than the other way around. This is going to be a really fun series with a lot of high-level shot-making on both sides.